Below includes Dec 3 through Dec 10
Graceland Updates 4am-7am
Email: s2p3t4@sympatico.ca
Dec 3, 2009
1. The Champ. Let me talk briefly about the champ. The champ sits as his desk at his/her business/factory. It is a substantial operation.
2. The champ is not very good at calling markets, not a trading guru. In fact, the champ doesn’t like trading. The faster the speed of the trading, the more that trading gets away from a view. The faster the trader is, the more uncomfortable the champ becomes. Buy/sell, buy/sell, etc. Any gains require huge amounts to time.
3. Are those gains worth the risk? The champ doesn’t think so. There are millions of day flippers, day traders. 99% are failures. The other 1%, well, if they die, so does their trading system.
4. Sometimes a person can have tremendous talents, but they are spinning their talent wheels in the mud. While the champ watches.
5. There are many champs amongst my readers. What I want those of you who are business champs, and all subscribers, to think about is: Your production line.
6. YOU are able to get up in the morning, go to your business, and watch all the individual compartments in action. Each part of your factory is a component of the whole. All work together to produce and market the product and multiply that action to the greatest extent possible.
7. There are two themes to what I write above. First, a very simple point. The day trader thinks too small. He’s a piece of machinery in the factory of market success. Not the end product, built, sold, and banked.
8. The market player now needs to pay tremendous attention here: Hands up everyone who stepped up to the options or the juniors stocks players plate, senior/intermediate gold stks, or gold itself as I called for that as gold rose up from 980?
9. I already know where your mind is going if you didn’t, so let’s halt that thought right here and back it up and think like the champ: At this point, the champ is LISTENING. The non-champs are in: regret mode. Learn from the champ. Not about markets. About money. The champ is measured by how many dollars or ounces his marketed goods have been exchanged for. He/she IS the champ because of the massive success they have had doing that.
10. The champ understands risk and reward far better than 99% of market traders, even though most champs are losers in the market per dollar invested into it. Stay focused on that thought.
11. Just as the Pgen quantifies the market factory into individual machinery components operating perfectly towards the common end, the player must operate the same way: With total professionalism.
12. When YOU decide it is time to move in the market as a player, the babe ruths and the champs have no problem taking action.
13. Let me repeat that: When I made the call for players to step forward in the gold 980-1070 area, what happened was a PARADE of CHAMPIONS stepped forward. The rest of you NEED to think about this reality. What did they all see in unison? What they saw was a situation where possible reward was much greater than risk.
14. When it is time to pull the business TRIGGER with massive amounts of money at champ’s factory, there is no hesitation, there is only ACTION.
15. Here’s the bottom line: As gold burst towards the neckline of the head and shoulders it offered what I termed a “risk and reward opportunity sculpted by MICAELANGELO”, the non-champ FROZE while the champs SPRINTED FORWARDS. Suddenly I realized Graceland subs held a huge portion of the GDXJ float. I have laid out SOME of the reasons why you froze. Now, here’s the next step: Unless you have taken the unbelievable amounts of pain required to build a massive factory, and faced the endless series of risk/reward decisions they have (that is all they do ALL DAY LONG), I don’t know if you can fix that freezing mentality simply by thinking about it.
16. The MARKET can bring out UNEXPECTED emotions at any time. This is why I’ve mentioned the critical importance of cutting the size of your buys or increasing your sells to manage those emotions.
17. You could be in the midst of a buy program, and suddenly you are overwhelmed with fear. You think, “but why is this, I shouldn’t be this fearful, this dejected right here…”
18. Don’t think in that situation. Act. Don’t turn a range pyramid into a foundational pyramid backed by terror instead of pre-set buy points confidently executed.
19. Now I come full circle back to the POINT of the day trader information. As a player who is not a champ, you need to create the edge that the champ has with his/her massive money and basic/risk reward wisdom. I have mentioned using the 60 minute charts to time entry points. I want to take that to the next level now, and USE the day trading boneheads as MACHINERY in our factory. So, by DEFINITION, they are no longer useless boneheads flipping coins.
20. Instead they become VALUABLE parts of the Graceland Market Factory. To get in on a market of strength where you are AFRAID requires first an acceptance that the correction YOU WANT is the last probability that WILL occur. You need to ACT in the market and that requires reducing the amount of capital you would like to act with. What the day trader can do is bring a LASER BEAM PINPOINTING of market entry points. Talented day traders can serve you, by giving you a NUMBER of attempts to get in on the gold bull.
21. The same for the US dollar “rally” and the stock market sell-off. If you really want to play the market, you need a timer, a real pro, to whom you allocate the task of getting into the DEAL. That is one of the reasons I’m going to New York. To put out some fishing lines for market timers. Not to play flipper. To hire them on an AS-NEEDED basis for MONSTER PLAY entry assistance. I decide when that assistance is needed, or you. Not them. They take orders. “Listen bud, I want to get into the oil market today. But if it all goes ugly, I don’t want to eat 10 bucks a barrel, I think this is a big opportunity.”
22. The other reason I brought up the champs today is this: Some of the non-champs have simply asked me, “what’s going on at Graceland, stewart, banks, traders, funds, lawyers, accountants, what’s all this action, it’s a little confusing, what’s the story?
23. Answer: Time Management. The champ sells the most amount of product in the least amount of time. Remember my words yesterday about the banksters acting massively in the Dow in the 8000-6500 area. The banksters are literally supersize versions of our own champs. Their factory is the MARKET. Some of you need your money managed. I need my time managed. By delegating out what Graceland does to lawyers, accountants, and ex-JP Morgan banksters, I’m building a TOTAL PACKAGE.
24. The champs know what I’m doing is about efficiency as much as about anything else. Building a bank and operating it with a team of professional traders will take a fraction of the time I have spent building the groundwork. At the higher levels of business and markets, the level of professionalism and efficiency is mind-boggling. Some of the non-champs are actually WORRIED about me. “Stu, you are working to hard”. Let me tell you what is in the mind of the champs:
25. “Sounds good Stu, keep me posted on the action, I’ve got your “stock” on my radar screen.” The champs want to see me write LESS in the mornings and do it more efficiently. They know I want the same. Building the structure of a factory is lot more time-intensive than running it, provided it’s been designed correctly.
26. Most professional traders lose in the market on 7 or 8 of 10 trading days. The two winners are bigger than the losers. The Brain, for 10 consecutive YEARS, has been a market WINNER on a average of 8 of 10 trading days, with a drawdown that has never exceeded 15% from any peak to trough account value. The average dollar win is 3 times the loss. Are You Listening. That is almost SUPERHUMAN. WE have somebody of the calibre of Paul Tudor on our hands. And it will be law firms, the accountants, and the ex-JP Morgan banksters that turn this into a FACTORY. The brain’s time expenditures and stress levels will drop even more than mine will with a team of professionals backing us. The champs know this, and knew it long before I even thought of the idea.
27. A factory cuts the brain’s currently INSANE workload, and MINE, by 90%. I will be writing the letter exponentially faster, better, AND free up 90% of my day’s time, WHILE building a MASSIVE financial operation that serves you at a level that is vastly above anything anyone anywhere offers, AND do it at a lower cost than they are doing.
28. While some market opportunities exist at night in the gold market, they do not exist in size. Trading more than $1,000,000 in gold at night is not easy to do if you want to make money. During the day, the opportunities are the same, but the dollar size is astronomical.
29. A TEAM of traders is required here at Graceland. This is beyond what any of you can bring to the table. The brain understands who can trade and who is a wet noodle storyteller. The Pgen will also be taken to “the next level”. Not by me. Not by the brain. By JP Morgan. That’s called “fund analytics”. While some of you can do this, and goldblood in England has made as many attempts at doing this as I have, I’m of the opinion that the next step for me to fly to New York and sit down with some JP Morgan guys and talk turkey.
30. If we’re going to get serious, we have to do it. I couldn’t face the champs if I don’t do this. I have to execute not only on the business but on my time management. Many of you champs are market losers. I’m a time management loser. That ended yesterday. JP Morgan wants to see $200 million on the table. In return, they’ll open the door to us to their world’s largest and most professional shopping cart of pgen analytics, one that will see the Graceland Pgen section turned into something a THOUSAND times stronger than it is now. We WILL get that done. But it has to be done one step at a time. Notice the time as I send this out. 730am Toronto time. I didn’t rush. The efficiency move is already falling into place.
31. I need goldblood’s help to execute on this. He’s the money man with not blueblood connections, but goldblood connections. He wrote me the other day, “I won’t let you down, Stu.” I won’t let you down either Sir. I can do everything else. But to get him all the Pgen playtoys (if you call JP Morgan Pgen analytics playtoys) he wants, this has to be done. Every other option has a degree of success, but in the end, as something sustainable, it’s a clambake plan. Superman and Goldflower know this. We need act as DIRECTORS, not production line workers. We don’t need $200 million out of the gate, but we have to get there. Failure is not an option. JP Morgan WILL do our bidding. They will work for us like slaves. But we have to show them the money. I’m talking about professionalizing the pgen.
32. “Show us the money, honey, we’ll cut the hours you work in a day by 90%, and give you the tools to take your pgen and your whole newsletter, to a level the subs are only dreaming about now, but Stu, you gotta SHOW US THE MONEY.” -The Champs.
33. “Yes Sir!” - Stewart “Mr. Efficiency” Thomson.
34. The brain’s brain is on overload now. He gave me access to his website yesterday and what I see there is an Indy 500 race car that I know you would all give your EYE TEETH to jump into. But it’s like the SLUDGE commercial. There’s a bunch of glob coating the car that “team hardcore” does not need around. The brain’s subscribers are “nurtured”. I’m not into nurturing and nor is the brain, ironically, in their trading. What needs to be done is to add a “champs” section. I don’t want a rape and pillage show. The brain’s own subscribers don’t even know about his phenomenal trading. Obviously the brain isn’t a factory owner or a broker. I am. I am a broker.
35. I’m a broker of…Excellence.
Cheers,
st
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
Graceland Updates 4am-7am
Email: s2p3t4@sympatico.ca
Dec 4 2009
1. Placing pgen trades. The million dollar question is where to start placing the orders. The answer is: On Paper. The first thing most investors do is look at the MARKET and then place their orders according to where the market might go. I don’t do that. I place my orders according to what I can take mentally.
2. While I’m not a neat freak, I want a workspace where I can focus. An account filled with stocks showing huge air pockets is not going to help things. The first pgen action is to get an account with nothing in it and place an amt of risk capital you can handle in there.
3. What THAT does is PHYSICALLY stop you from slitting your own throat with analysis and emotions. What I do next is look at the pyramid I’ve created and then go to a price chart. I move my eyes down the chart slowly and sort of adjust myself to “being there”. I picture price falling to the lower levels of the pyramid.
4. I believe one error going on out there is caused by starting a range pyramid in a mixed account, and then as price falls lower, more capital is added to the situation that you originally set as your exact allocated risk capital. I get questions like, “should I keep buying this weakness, you seem negative on this item…” The answer is: If price is below the bottom of your range pyramid, your buy program is over.
5. Yesterday I talked about “the champs”. Successful biz owners. The champ gets very uncomfortable if he has to allocate more risk capital to a deal than he originally allocated, it is not an action he likes engaging in, not at all. I suggest the non-champs should focus on following that mindset, living it.
6. The market writer and the non-champs tend to focus on what the market or an analyst is telling them about the market. “The chart shows resistance and China is doing abc…” The champ doesn’t care about any of that when their DEAL has gone south. “No I put my 50 grand in that natural gas deal, I think I’ve got enough in there”. The champ is also VERY reluctant to book losses. They can withstand mind boggling drawdowns, although they hate it.
7. So it’s very important the risk capital you allocate to a deal (and it could be a monthly amt of money) is set in stone, not in greed. There will be other deals if you miss one. Knowing where to set your pgen peaks and troughs is not easy. Because you are getting into where the market might go.
8. I had some extensive correspondence with the Brain last nite. A lot of “hot shots” (pot shots?) in the gold community are announcing the top is in. I agree.
9. The top is in for the amount of money in their trading accounts.
10. What the brain is looking at is a possible ORTHODOX BROADENING TOP in the Dow. One that has just seen price close below the “trigger point” of what Edwards and Magee term 5b. The Dow does have falling volume into this rally and what I term an “eerie series” of lower highs on Relative Strength Index, RSI. While price has moved higher. Classic bear action.
11. I contacted a few of you last night who are enthusiastic Dow bears. My bank trader friend said, “the brain and I must be using the same data, I see a possible crash too!” Wrong. But a nice hope on Mr. Bank Trader’s part.
12. The brain isn’t so sure there will be any crash, but the difference between the Brain and team Top Caller is the brain has already laid in their trigger points to take market ACTION.
13. “The bulls and the bears could BOTH lose on this next move” –the Brain. I can see that. I can see those waiting for a pullback in gold turning to panic while the shorts load up, sure the top is in, once again. Jim Sinclair weighed in with his view gold will rise up thru 1224 to 1278, once again destroying the gold top callers.
14. I’ll be posting little items about operating the Pgen each day in the updates. Today’s lesson is pretty clear: Don’t play around with your pre-set risk capital. There is no “need” to keep buying an item to zero when what you really had going was a range pyramid. On that note: natural Gas emails are thundering in. Everything in that market looks great, except price. I was filled on my latest pgen buy. I use gas.to, as opposed to ung.nyse. Stay focused on the natural gas price, not the etf chart. The etfs are wet noodle versions of the natgas futures, but unless you like shooting huge amts of risk capital with a single bullet, the “sloppiness” of the etfs is a reasonable price to pay to trade much smaller than with the futures contracts. Natural Gas is arguably the most volatile commodity price. So you need to forget about playing natural gas trader. One of you who has nicknamed yourself “Ironman” said aprox yesterday, “I’ve got a 5 year time frame and I feel I could quadruple my capital in that time.” THAT is the CORRECT way to look at this. Throw the natgas charts away, it’s hard enough trading gold with charts, let along NG. There’s a REASON Jim Rogers is accumulating NG.
15. The US dollar rally. The banksters want the carry trade. The supposed “coming intervention” in the forex markets to boost the dollar is a scam. The PURPOSE of any dollar rally is to ROAST the fundsters who are short the dollar with huge leverage. JUST like they did into Dow 6500. “Hey Mr. Mutual Fund investor, do does it feel here at Dow 6500? Just hand over all those stocks, and we’ll make the pain stop. We promise!” The fundsters and moronic public DID hand over their stocks. “Here take this Alcoa and General Electric crap, it’s only yielding 6% with a PE ratio of 8, get it away from me now!” Joe Fundster, Joe Golf Ball Advisor. –March 2009.
16. The fight for the “carry trade ball” will be won by the banksters. And then you will see a decline in the US dollar that will ELECTROCUTE the gold topsters. Picture sticking a MILLION VOLT power line in your MOUTH. THAT is the what the gold topsters are preparing to do to themselves. RIGHT NOW. And the banksters are holding on/off switch.
17. In the shorter term, what is going to happen is the gold bulls are going to, according to the Brain, buy the gold price dips and then find price does NOT turn around.
18. Write this one down and paste it to your computer. I have it nailed to my face: YOU can’t follow the Brain’s actions in the market. I can’t even do it and I’m in contact with him ALL THE TIME!!
19. You have to watch your pgen buys kick in. Sit back and relax and watch your golden turkeys gather up the gold!
20. For every failed top call the gold writers make (the brain looks at them as SLOW MOTION BLOBS), the brain makes 100 REAL ONES with BOOKED PROFITS. And keeps his MOUTH SHUT about it. For some idiotic reason, the gold writers seems maniacally obsessed with calling a $50 or $100 fall in gold so they can dance around and celebrate their ONE actual winning call. But because their trading tactics are amateur GARBAGE, all they do is ROAST those who investors who try to play professional soldier with a cap gun, on the very real battlefield.
21. I’m a professional investor in the sense that I only buy weakness and I only sell strength. But I’m not a professional trader. The brain is. Jim Sinclair is a REAL professional trader. Certain traders at the bank owned firms, a small number, are phenomenal professionals too. ALL the rest of the midget mind monkeys in the gold writing community wearing professional trader kiddie masks, the bottom line is they couldn’t trade their way out of a wet paper bag if their LIFE depended on it. When it comes to professional trading, I’ve raised money for guys handling hundreds of millions in a fund situation. I’m a broker of excellence. Meaning the product, not me, is excellent. THAT is a FACT. I know when a WIENER is RUNNING THEIR MOUTH and winner is ACTING.
22. Goldblood over in England just blew the analytics ball out of the park. Details on Tuesday. The Brain might collapse when he sees what goldblood has in the analytics toolbox for the Brain. Meantime, I booked my ticket to New York last night and confirmed the meeting on Wed with the –ex JP Morgan boys, who are handling BILLIONS now. While they aren’t the cheapest guys on the block (they’re staying in Manhattan at the Radisson, I’m staying in Queens), they are on the friggin’ move. They are an asset gathering MACHINE.
23. I want to associate with winners and movers. Not wieners and slugs. How about you?
24. Now, let’s hit the site, me included, and grind it out on the gold buys with the pgen. Gold is down THIRTY FIVE DOLLARS AN OUNCE from the 1225 highs as I send this off. The Brain is probably wearing scuba gear to breath as the money pours all over him. Don’t force things before their time. I’m showing you what a REAL pro can add to our toolbox. Not some egotistical idiot with an agenda. We’re all just “pgenners” EXCEPT THE BRAIN. The gold is here for us that is OUR thing. Let’s do our thing and GET THAT GOLD. The fundsters idiots are already on fire and throwing it away. Let’s pick it up!
Cheers,
st
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
Graceland Updates 4am-7am
Email: s2p3t4@sympatico.ca
Dec 7 2009
1. Very interesting article on gold in Bloomberg today. They made a solid effort to wreck it, by giving it a title about how a savings account beat gold’s rise if you bought gold on the day of the peak in 1980. I’m posting the article on the site, but I may have made an accidental typo in the title. Check it out.
2. If you want to buy ANY major market on the day of top after a 12 year bull market and then expect to do well somehow, good luck to you.
3. The reality is you need to phase in and out of major markets. Jim Sinclair issued his first sell signal for gold yesterday. No, not at this price. He mentions taking your original investment off the table at 1580 and letting the rest ride.
4. I know. What’s going on? Jim Sinclair suddenly talking “sell”? Remember his words, “97% of you won’t believe me when I say it’s over”.
5. I have written for years that at 1400-1500 I want to lighten the load. I would say 70% of the reason for that is I wanted to get off the train at the station that comes before Big Jim and his real gold mkt monsterpals (who will ever be mentioned on his website) start unloading what could be MILLIONS of ounces. I have said many many times “work with the market’s money, not yours.” That is what defines a winner in the market.
6. This advice applies even more to junior gold stocks. Does it really matter if you own $700,000 of juniors rather than $1 million if they are going up 3, 10, 20, 30 times in price? As these stocks rise, get your original investment, your risk capital, OUT. Do it in stages, but work with the market’s money for the home run play. NOT YOURS.
7. www.goldbrainupdates.com [as of Dec 9, this is a Joomla web hosting site.] will be the website doing some things with The Brain. There’s nothing there now. I expect this site to go up very fast. I’ve been around a lot of professional traders, guys managing hundreds of millions, even billions, as traders. Believe me, we’re all a few light years behind the brain. On our best trading day…
8. Regardless, your ideas are greatly appreciated and of great value to the subscribers and I’ll be quantifying them as follows: www.gracelandanalytics.com [as of Dec 9, this too is a Joomla web hosting site.] is also going up. This won’t be a newsletter, but a market laboratory dedicated to optimizing the Pgen for various market conditions. But other investment ideas will also be studied there. I’ll report back to you here on the data. For example, one of you, Sammy the (Gold) Bull (don’t think I want to cross you…) calls selling gold into the jobs report a near slam dunk trade for the past 5 years. This past Friday was the jobs report…
9. The current decline in gold has the cycle theorists and chartists believing the top is in. I expect this decline to end within a week or so. It may already be over… I hope I’m WRONG so I buy MORE. I mentioned that the end of the 1st week in dec shows a seasonal decline for a week or so followed by a huge surge higher. The problem with the gold top callers is: A. They’ve failed repeatedly already, and investors who shorted gold on all their previous top calls have lost so much money that it would take YEARS of trading wins to make that back. B. Even their recent top call is a TRADING failure. Gold blew to a new high to 1225 while they were short from a week earlier. So they were stopped out, and maybe several times.
10. Calling a top and making money shorting gold are two TOTALLY different realities.
11. Silver is down to the $18 area from $19.50. Gold touched $1137 after hitting $1225. That’s almost a HUNDRED DOLLARS down on gold.
12. Bottom Line: The NECKLINE BUY PLAY IS UNDERWAY!
13. Some dealers allow you to buy in small chunks, and then take delivery later and save on shipping and other costs. For example, a small player could buy in 5 ounce or even 1 ounce chunks, and then take delivery after you have a kilo. You could take delivery at any point, but then you pay the premium. This involves some risk as the dealer could go under while you accumulate, so deal with somebody reputable.
14. How to be a bustout101 course: PRETEND you are a professional trader, but trade the OPPOSITE to what a real professional does. I told you the gold writers would turn into WORMS this week, and they are beating my expectations. They are acting in the market in response to the charts the banksters’s kids have finger painted for them. Do you really think the banksters weren’t on the buy on Friday? Hello? Click here now for a view of the gold community this morning as seen out Jim Sinclair’s window. Gold Community MasterPlay
15. Here’s some of the statements leading gold writers this morning: “I’m fully hedged preparing for an extended correction.” Here’s another. “I would not consider it a death sign for the long term…” Does THAT guy sound confident, would you want him representing YOUR company as a salesman? Does he sound confident about HIS gold?
16. English Language Translations: “It IS a death sign, help!”. And: “I’m now leveraged short gold after watching it tank Friday!” Another translation: “I sold all my gold AT THE MARKET on Friday, and whatever I didn’t bail on then I’m turfing at the market this morning! THAT, after watching gold rise $300 while I had almost none.” Right on, where do I sign up for my stay on the gold wiener ranch. Jingle bells all the way to Christmas is now Top Caller bells all the way….to the Gold Garbage Can. Wait till gold turns around to the upside again. The banksters have a major surprise in store for the gold shorty pants. THIS is a about the banksters TAKING the USD carry trade before BOMBING the buck. NOTHING MORE. We’ve entered the era of extreme gold price volatility, yet THAT is the VERY LAST THING on the top callers’ mini-minds. They are all stepping forward believing NOW they can trade, after they couldn’t make ten cents out of a MONSTER head and shoulders pattern on the bull side. YOU can bet YOUR money on the bustout patrol if you want. NOT ME.
17. Keep it simple. The reality is that gold is CHEAPER NOW, than it was last week. Sammy the Bull is a gold DEALER, and believe me, he knows it. He’s like a bull in a gold china shop right now on the BUY. The physical market is still VERY tight. The reality is that EVERYTHING YOU WANTED 2 WEEKS AGO HAS JUST BEEN DELIVERED TO YOU ON A PLATTER. TAKE IT !!!!
18. I told you it wouldn’t be like sitting at the restaurant ordering up a correction selection of gold stocks. “hmmm I’ll take this one and that one at these prices. Have you got that all written down Mr. Gold Waiter? Great.” Wrong. I said the correction would feel like the banksters pouring gold restaurant garbage on your head. I was 100% correct. Get in there with Sammy the Bull. Get into the gold dumpster and TAKE NO PRISONERS ON THE GOLD BUY. This is a STREET FIGHT.
19. “It’s not gold chainsaw time. Price weakness is a gift to you from the gold gods.” -The Brain. Dec 5, 2009.
20. Babe Ruth said recently, “This is War !!!!”. NOW it IS war. And the result of that war will be: VICTORY FOR US.
21. WHO do you think is on the gold BUY right now? Answer: The BANKSTERS. (and Granny at the Grocery) The average comex gold contract can only withstand $10-15 of price weakness. Per 100oz contract. The fundsters are on FIRE right NOW.
22. I worked with our own Nervous Nellie (our most terrified subscriber) to transform him into “Neutral Nellie”. Today he started on his next transformation. While it’s not a full transformation, today he got to at least try on his Captain America suit. He sold gold in a pyramid formation into $1200 and now he’s back on the gold buy this morning. Put the gold market tactics of the banksters in the hands of a hardcore business owner and YOU can say, “Now I’ve got a MACHINE GUN.” If you’re a price-chasing coward afraid to face the mirror, which we’ve ALL been in the past, including myself, it’s time to step up to the plate, time to be a MAN. So what if gold “breaks the neckline” and goes under $1000. For all WE know, THIS is the bottom. “If gold falls $300 I’ll go to 100% long.” – Babe Ruth. RESPOND to price. Don’t predict it. It just fell almost a third of that $300. $900 gold isn’t something to be afraid of. It’s a PEANUT move. We’re talking about 2 more days like Friday. Big deal. Somebody call my mommy, I can’t handle it! The fact the writers are all WILDLY EXCITED right now PROVES this is the era of gold volatility. If the gold worm writers were put in charge of your companies they bankrupt you in SIX MONTHS. They have ZERO ability to withstand pain. They are MAKING the gold market volatility with their gold TERROR. While the banksters laugh their heads off on the buy.
23. Tactics: Those of you who shorted bits of gold and/or bought bits of USDollars into the gold strength as a GOLD PROFIT TAKING pyramid started sending me emails of discomfort last week. Still feel that way? Remember that FEELING. That’s when the market turns when you REALLY feel that way. If the feel isn’t 100% overwhelming, by definition the market cannot turn.
24. I wonder if Jim Rogers sold all his gold today… Bail Jim Bail! Get out at the market! Don’t buy any more if it goes lower, you’ll lose all your money! Captain Squiggly Wiggly’s chart says it’s all over and gold is going to zero at high noon tomorrow. Sell all your gold at the market and load up on wet noodles on full leverage. Yee Ha!
Are You Prepared?
Are You On the Gold Buy In A Pyramid Formation?
Yes or No?
Cheers,
st
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
Graceland Updates 4am-7am
Email: s2p3t4@sympatico.ca
Dec 8 2009
1. Tonight I attempt to fly to New York. Should the plane land safely [??] you can contact me at gracelandupdates@gmail.com Use that email from 3pm today to 6pm tomorrow. This is a short trip. I may or may not be able to access my main email while travelling. If I can configure the ISP with my email, I will. Best to send to both s2p3t4@sympatico.ca AND the gracelandupdates@gmail.com
2. One of you sent me a pgen with a glitch in it. I thought I sent that to superman, but I think I failed. If you recall that, please resend to me. It was around 2 weeks ago. This was a technical glitch in the pgen where you entered a percentage for the buy and sell increments. It gave back an error message. I’m pretty sure you are correct about that glitch..Thanks!
3. Clive Maund is a superb chartist. However, one of you–who trades millions of dollars in gold every week, pointed out in an email you sent him yesterday, that YOU bought most of the junior stock in a company that his combined subs sold after gold tanked.
4. Example number 500 Zillion of buy weakness and sell strength is that bottom line. Making money versus calling market direction. Two very different realities. I’ve seen many business owners embrace what the banksters do in the market, the buying weakness and selling strength in a pyramid formation, and no gold writer can compete with that when they begin to execute on the strategy repeatedly. The substantial business owner brings too much to the table. It’s an overwhelming force, a force that goes way beyond simple dollars, and is understood by very few outside of the bankster community. The volume of understanding of risk and reward that the business owner has, is something incomprehensible to most writers and analysts. It is a force of tremendous power.
5. Beyond that is the highest level of trading, and the trader becomes more artist than fighter. Jim Sinclair speaks of his father in this regard and he himself is a trader-artist. The brain trades as an artist. It’s like moving beyond the fight ring and into a ballet stage. But all market winners focus first on “what is my risk on this deal, what, really, do I have on the line here, how much can I lose?”
6. Bloomberg reports that Mary Ann Bartels of BankAmerica is the number 2 ranked technical analyst at institutions. Mary sees a possible dollar rally tanking the SP500 to 1000.
7. This plays in with what the Brain sees. There is an orthodox broadening top formation on the stock market. But major price patterns in the stock market have a notorious habit of being false, or price halts long before the ultimate target of the pattern is reached.
8. The orthodox broadening top is the death pattern for a major market. 1929 began with the decline from a broadening top. There is no question that relative strength continues to fade as price has risen to one high after another. The Dow Transports show the same kind of action despite just making another new high.
9. A drop to 1000 on the S&P500 (S&Pooh500?) could bring my “Gold Neckline Play” to perfection. Meaning the head and shoulders pattern on both the weekly charts and the KingDaddy 20 year monthly chart pattern highlighted by Trader Dan Norcini. I term it the Golden Goldzilla. Dan’s highlighted pattern is certainly one of largest and most powerful legitimate chart patterns to appear on a major market in 100 years. And it is ultra bullish for gold.
10. Keep that in mind before opening up the gold garbage dumpster and tossing your gold in there. If you look in the gold dumpster, you’ll see the biggest banksters standing there with open arms.
11. My trader, the brain, notes that we may not necessarily have seen the high yet, however, for the SP500. Perhaps yes, perhaps no. There are a tremendous amt of “if this if that” possibilities in the market right now.
12. Your only proven-over-time market weapon, is to buy weakness and sell strength. If you are a gold player, well, as the brain said to me yesterday, “gold price weakness here is a gift to you from the gold gods.” Take it.
13. The problem with the idea of trying to pick the bottom of the gold correction is that the gold-negative news accelerates in volume along with price.
14. Therefore, if price did fall down to your targeted buy point, you may or may not be emotionally capable of executing your buy orders. Worse, what if gold fails to fall to your buy point and then turns up and goes to 1400 or higher, how will you feel?
15. If you can’t buy any gold now, but you felt you were missing out at gold 1225 and silver 19.50, my suggestion is to take immediate action on the buy side. Not a price plop, but you have to step up to the buy plate here with something.
16. The bottom line is that the price of silver is 19 dollars an ounce. Silver is not likely to go to zero. What happens if you put on a pair of skates and jump into the Stanley Cup Hockey Finals? Answer: You may die and you will certainly face major injury. You are in the pro’s way and they will harm you.
17. Your biggest friend in the silver market is the 19 dollars of price levels between you and zero. Your biggest enemy is trying to guess which one of those levels is not your friend today.
18. With gold it is the same. I don’t believe most in the gold community have done any serious preparation for what is playing out as a picture perfect head and shoulders neckline play.
19. When you go to battle, various weaponry is moved to strategic points on the battlefield. The gold winner is he or she who is able to increase the number of ounces they own with no leverage. Price has moved down. This is an advantage for the gold community. It’s a battle field win. Not an account win. The account wins come on the sell side, the profit booking side.
20. The oil market is in a similar situation. Price has fallen from 82 to 72. That means you have 72 soldiers beneath you, working for you in battle. Betting on how many of your own soldiers will die is stupid. Bet real dollars on every single one of those soldiers, all the way to zero. But be smart about it. Bet the most of amount of dollars on oil soldier $1 a barrel. Not oil soldier $72 a barrel. But bet something on Mr. 72. I am.
21. Gold is a billion times less risky than oil. You have 1146 gold soliders working for you. You are the General leading them. Don’t bet money on which of your own soldiers will die. That’s retarded. Bet incrementally larger amounts that the enemy-the dollar-will fail against gold in a pyramid formation of buy orders that extends lower. I am.
thanks
st
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
Graceland Updates 4am-7am
Email: s2p3t4@sympatico.ca
Dec 9 2009
1. Good Morning from New York. Some have said to me, “watch out Stewart, they’ll eat you alive there!”
2. Maybe. But they have to get out of bed first. I’ve got a head start on them on that front…
3. The Gold Mind. Babe Ruth noted yesterday, “there is no gold market fear.” The brain, The Babe, and myself are all looking for bullion to move to the 1030-1050 area. What I term the neckline play. The Babe looks only for really large fear in the market. He’s a home run hitter so only some big fear is going to catch his buy interest.
4. The brain is an evaluator of the market on a daily basis. I simply respond to price and follow the monster technical patterns, that occur very rarely.
5. None of us is “predicting” 1050. Do I want it? Yes. I want more gold, not less. So obviously I want the price to come down.
6. I don’t know what the percentages are and I guess I should do a quick survey to find out, but my suspicion is that many of you FEEL you got too light on gold as it rose. That’s how you are SUPPOSED to feel as a professional. Don’t sabotage your own success based on caving in to those primal urges…
7. My worry is that some of you are marking the points where you bought and waiting for price to get there to “fix” where you “wrongly” sold “too early”. That is a DISASTER PLAN.
8. Gold fell to about 1125 overnite. That should be hitting some of your buy points. We now have a full hundred dollar fall from the 1225 highs. Gold has already rallied about $20 from those lows.
9. I mentioned yesterday the importance of creating the mindset that the price points below the current price are YOUR SOLDIERS. They work for you. This is a theme I’ll keep you focused on. It is MAJOR.
10. You MUST view lower gold prices as your FRIEND.
11. Some of you were disappointed to see Jim Sinclair talk about selling some gold at $1580. In the 1970’s he set a target at 900. When it got near there, he sold. He received real death threats from losers who had bought near those highs. This time, he set 1650 as a target. Certain events have opened the door to POSSIBLY much higher prices. Armstrong is in the clink and Alf Fields is 1 billionth the trader that Jim is, and I’m being generous in that assessment of Alf. Follow Jim’s actions with your SAFER money, and those around him with more speculative funds. That’s what Jim is doing himself. Use the market’s money, not yours, to take additional risk on the higher gold targets.
12. Gold stocks are not necessarily the sell that bullion is at the end of this bull mkt in gold. If bullion is locked to gold, and other commodities, including oil, fall, you could be looking at a situation where there is a drastic drop in the cost of mining gold, yet the price of the product remains astronomically high.
13. That opens the door, possibly, to multi-year sky high gold stock dividend payouts. Keeping in mind: The banksters want to take any good deal for themselves.
14. At the top of their current shopping list:
15. The US dollar carry trade. As everyone storms forward to get on the long USD bandwagon, there’s a teeny weeny question that they are all forgetting:
16. When you load up on USD longs, WHO is on the other side of THIS trade? Is it Ronald McDonald the clown? After their WORLD TOUR promoting the carry trade as THE trade, the banksters are now crowing, “hold on, the situation has changed, the dollar could rally, let’s monitor this closely…” The fundsters are locking in micro profits and switching to some longs.
17. Soon it won’t be about profit-locking. It will be about loss-booking. SOMEBODY is holding the other side of the trade of every dollar long put on as it rallies. It is the BANKSTERS[selling strength]. What about….YOU?
18. What happened to all the tough guy talk in the gold community about the dollar being “finished”. I was buying the dollar into this weakness for the past 2 months and so were the banksters. I don’t need to read some bonehead’s ANALYSIS as to why the dollar must rally now. The bustouts can have my dollars as price rallies. Right out of my ringing cash register!
19. Do not count profits. Book Them. Don’t waste time shorting the USD, just buy GOLD. The key words being: Buy Gold. Gold IS the BEST USD carry trade. You don’t need to leverage the Euro/USD spread trade, just buy gold with no leverage. Like it or not, the banksters are side by side with you here, in your corner. They play the paper usd carry trade because it is so BIG. YOU are not that big. So buy gold to ride the Banksters Great White Shark as they take bites out of the .
20. There are more dollars in profit to be made by the banksters shorting the USD, but the higher percentage is in buying gold.
21. You don’t have the luxury of their problems of being too big.
22. Let’s focus on buying a REAL one ounce of gold into $100 of weakness TODAY and leave the fantasy of buying ten zillion ounces at the exact bottom TOMORROW to ALL the chartists, writers, and other assorted master pipedreamers.
23. Many of you have been disappointed with certain statements made by a very large bullion dealer towards their paying customers by their flagship analyst. Some of you feel the customer is being almost ridiculed. Most of you know the reason I’m in New York today is to investigate certain managed money options with regards to custodians and administrators for managed money. I like to compartmentalize risk/reward. I don’t like private items mixed with public items, leverage money mixed with unleveraged, etc. I like to keep juniors separate from seniors, etc.
24. The point being, that down the road, establishing a private equity fund that exists specifically exists to buy bullion dealers is an idea to keep in the bank of your mind, if you follow that pun. Anyone can give their opinion on a market, but obviously you don’t want to just buy a substantial gold and then see the dealer that sold it to you laughing at you 24 hrs later… If you bought a new car, would you feel good when you drove off if the sales manager was pointing at you and laughing? If I owned that dealership Mr. Sales Manager would get a bit of a reality check. Don’t complain about jerk bullion dealers. Buy them. Let’s not talk about it. Let’s do it. Some of you have tremendous experience building and operating private equity funds. Some have massive experience in the gold dealing biz. Others have massive experience in the legal field. My thing is exchange-traded gold items, not private equity. But I can see a huge opportunity here, just by changing the customer service side of things in many situations. It is very important that customers get the best gold at the best buy and sell prices with the best service with a trusted dealer. With a money maker as lead analyst for the firm, not a clown or a churner. A private equity fund must answer to their investors, although patience is understandably required on the part of the investor. When my subs buy they should feel confident and comfortable and get quality product, excellent pricing, and feel they are dealing with a gold market EXPERT who wants them to make money, not feel they are contestants on the gold gong show, and they just gonged for buying. Regardless, it’s important to Start Small. Multiply what works rather than “doing it all differently for the big win.” Multiply consistency.
25. Picture a major family of hedge funds of exchange-traded funds as one ARM. Then a family of gold dealers. AFTER those are proven, operating, multiplying, and PERFORMING, then we can talk…BANK. And then my pipedream of being the world’s only newsletter to pay a DIVIDEND..well. at minimum, the pipe comes out of the dream…
26. My message to my newsletter competitors continues to be: Stop dictating to your subs about how great you are and start LISTENING to them.
Back in Toronto later tonight. I’ll let you know how it goes with the golden “Mountbatten of Manhattan”…
Cheers
st
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
Graceland Updates 4am-7am
Email: s2p3t4@sympatico.ca
Dec 10 2009
1. Price Targets and Money Management. I mentioned $1600 as Jim Sinclair’s first “take profit on gold” target. This is not his PRICE TARGET. Separate trading from prediction. You CANNOT plan to sell all your positions at a single price point where you think then bull will end or you are playing the LOTTO with ALL YOUR MONEY. Jim thinks gold is going to thousands of dollars an ounce. That’s his PREDICTION. $1600 is a MONEY ACTION point. I agree and I expect a gold WIPEOUT in that general price area. A wipeout that will convince most the bull is over when the real action is only about to start.
2. Paul Tudor [Jones] and John Paulson will operate in the market exactly like Jim is going operate on the sell side, exactly as I am going to operate. Selling INTO strength. Don’t trade ALL your money on your price prediction. On that CRITICAL note:
3. I met with one of you yesterday in New York, who I named King Kong before I went to NYC. You learned the hard way (is there any other way to really learn something?) that carrying positions of hundreds of millions of dollars in the market while booking zero profit is not a top strategy, to put it mildly. You are committed to the Pgen and I’m committed to having the brain professionalize and tweak the Pgen to something the largest institutions will be proud to put major money into.
4. As a group we will be bigger than Jim Sinclair in this bull market. We probably already are although many of you can’t believe it. King Kong guessed how many subscribers I have brought in over the past year and he was way, way, way, way, way, way too low on his guess, and I STILL understated the number to him by more than his entire guess! We are becoming a FORCE in the gold market. When I talked about us already being a controlling force in the gdxj float, that wasn’t a “buy my newsletter” sales pitch. It’s a fact.
5. But the fact that KingKong was so committed to the Pgen, particularly what it could do in the coming 12 months with GOLD, despite his thought that I had only a few subs, his commitment to the pgen and to me, speaks VOLUMES about what is going on here. He also called the ex-JP Morgan connection who I introduced him to in person, “Solid”. THAT speaks another set of volumes about what is going on at lightspeed, but one lightspeed professional step at a time. King Kong was VERY interested in why I “suddenly” became a “juniors” guy. It boils down to this: whether you think this is a gold bubble or not (I don’t), the bottom line is the move out of the symmetrical triangle at 980 set in motion the 3rd phase of the gold bull mkt. I don’t think it’s a bubble. King Kong has some very interesting analysis from his contacts as to why if this is a bubble, we’re very very early in the bubble. The bottom line is Graceland is now a major player on the gold scene and we’re in the company of Tudor, Paulson and Sinclair and the banksters as SUPERBULLS. The bears will be CRUSHED. We’re major and about to become a LOT MORE MAJOR.
6. One of KingKong’s goldtrades actually turned the gold market around upside and the rumour on the street was goldman was buying LARGE. There was massive buying. It was KingKong.
7. Even more importantly, if you are a microscopic subscriber, what is going on here is as much for YOUR benefit as anyone else’s. What most of you don’t understand is that King Kong and Goldblood REALLY don’t want anything out of this except better understanding of where the price of gold is going. I bring people together when it is TIME, just as I screamed “GOLD PLAYERS TO THE TABLE” into 980 and 1020. It’s not quite TIME to introduce everyone to the Brain. NONE of you understand the brain’s capabilities in the market. I do. It is lightyears ahead of the rest of you and I COMBINED. I assure you, I am VASTLY UNDERSTATING the Brain’s abilities to you, as I have downplayed all the other players in this, including the power of my own subscription base. The brain has not even STARTED to apply their brain to the pgen. YOU are making money with the PGEN. WHAT DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO HAPPEN WHEN THE BRAIN STARTS PLAYING WITH IT, TWEAKING IT WITH THEIR TRADING ABILITIES? Do YOU play with it? YES YOU DO.
8. ANSWER: THE PGEN PERFORMANCE and RISK MANAGEMENT GOES INTO WARP DRIVE. Leave the VISION to me. I won’t fail you. I can’t. By definition. Picture an Indy 500 car in the hands of a kindergarten kid. That’s YOU. Now picture a grownup driving it. That’s me. Now picture the car in the hands of one of the top race car drivers. NOW you are getting the picture, or so I hope…
9. Many of you THINK you have figured out the gold market and the pgen will carry you thru. It will. But only if you REALLY have your base at ZERO.
10. For some, I believe you. For others: I don’t believe you, which is one reason why the brain is here. The pgen robots are working, but alone, they will not succeed. There are too many horrifying surprises coming. For example, if our Caribbean version of goldblood is correct and gold falls to 600, many of you will be decimated, including KingKong. The gold market now is HARDER, not easier. Where IS gold going? My guess is 1000-1050. Would I be surprised if it fell to 600? NO. Would I be hurt? NO. Would I be on the buy all the way there? YES. Some of you, however, without the guidance of the brain, would not only be hurt, but obliterated. My suggestion is to accept the Brain as one of the family and stop trying to outsmart him. You will fail, and it could end very very badly.
11. At the same time, the brain needs to understand that the same things he brings to the table in the trading arena, King Kong and a RACK of the subscribers bring to the table in the business arena. No stupid action could take place. There are worries at this point.
12. My next job is to begin INTEGRATING the brain’s brilliance into the pgen.
13. What King Kong and I envision is the creation of a huge pgen that extends from perhaps gold $2500 or $3000 to zero with a myriad of range pgens within that. And maybe even one that goes to $5000. All with no leverage. ONLY the Brain has the ability to take this to a “supersonic” level in terms of performance. We’re ALL pumped with adrenaline as to what gold is about to do, what’s going on, on a whole lot of levels. It’s important to understand that adrenaline exists, but not to let it affect us negatively.
14. ALL of this relates DIRECTLY to the performance of every single sub reading this right now. The brain has the ability to sit down besides the very top inside super-traders at Goldman and Rothschild and tap right into their minds and trade at that supreme level, and I’m not talking about the “house guys”, I’m talking about the REAL TOP INSIDE level of those firms, the major families that are nominee shareholders of those firms. With the Brain doing HEAVY DUTY tweaking of the pgen, the Pgen’s risk management (drawdowns) AND the upside reward stand to go OFF the CHARTS.
15. KingKong KNOWS this.
16. I’ll probably be back in NYC in a week, maybe sooner. The flight is only an hour and I’ve got a handle on being set up and working from there for a few days. The first trip had to be short so I could get a handle on things and if it all went wrong I’d be back here 24 hrs later. Mission accomplished.
17. King Kong is a securities lawyer who has built hugely successful substantial companies. He has zero ego. I think I made the Brain nervous last night who thought I wanted him to immediately handle trading thousands of gold futures contracts for King Kong. OK, brain, stay relaxed. Think teddy bears and hot chocolate. Not nuclear weapons. King Kong simply wants to help us build things professionally. One peeny weeny step at a time.
18. I get almost zero subscription cancellations, less than 1%. One happened on the evening we hit 1225. This guy subscribed to a bunch of advisors and newsletters, and he was issuing ultimatums to all that he was missing out on the gold move and he was demanding trades demanding who would make him money now! He “cc’d” his emails to the other writers. Some gave him trades. I kept telling him, “I can’t tell you to buy gold on strength into 1200, I cannot do that. Buy gold in pyramid formation every $10 down WHEN it starts falling.” He didn’t like that, not at all. On the 1225 spike, he again demanded “action”. I sent him 3 words, “take the pain”. He got in a rage and bought anyways elsewhere. I sent him back his money with a 20% premium, and a note that said, “hold on to this, because it will be the ONLY profit you EVER make in the market.” Now gold is down $100. The man could have bought himself a nice amount of gold. Instead he’s running around breaking every mirror in his house and sending me obscenities because I mentioned the word: Patience.
19. The point: We ALL felt into 1200 that gold wouldn’t come down. The turn came. I’m not hearing a lot of reports of pgen buys. Don’t get over-focused on the neckline. Buying gold on a HUNDRED DOLLARS of weakness just makes sense.
20. Again, this is the TIME for gold juniors because it is likely the beginning of the 3rd phase of the bull mkt. That doesn’t mean they start shooting up today.
21. For example, Paulson is starting his fund in January. His gold STOCKS fund. No need to be looking at the price quotes and saying, “but gold jumped $200, maybe I should dump all my stocks and buy bullion. A number of you sent me THAT email recently. To repeat, Paulson is just ENTERING gold stocks in January.
22. If you think you feel “light” or left out on the move to 1200 BULLION wait til you see how “left behind” the gold stocks make you feel when they start to rise.
23. Today’s theme is: GET USED TO THE ADRENALINE BECAUSE A LOT MORE IS COMING. The gold volatility is going off the charts so we need the best tools and people in place to handle this.
24. This is a strange situation: There was no real greed at 1225, and there is no real fear now. There is however….
25. The Pgen! Let’s get to it!
Cheers,
st
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
Graceland Updates 4am-7am
Email: s2p3t4@sympatico.ca
Dec 11, 2009
1. Heads or Tails. You decide. Will the US dollar stage a super rally in January? Or a horrifying crash? The other possibility is of course that it just sits there.
2. I see that 3rd scenario as very unlikely. My trader The Brain has noted the possibility of a huge USD rally that takes place WITH a huge gold rally. I alluded to that scenario several times. It occurred in 1979 and led to the complete obliteration of many gold traders, who shorted gold, based on their failed analysis that gold would fall if the dollar rallied. Keep that in mind before congratulating yourself on blowing out all your gold and going naked short gold futures in size.
3. I don’t see that scenario as likely now, and nor does the brain, but it IS possible and REAL. We’re looking at “the neckline play”. A classic technical retracement back towards the gold neckline with horizontal support at 1033. Whether the turn comes on that point exactly, after penetrating it, or the bottom is already in…nobody knows.
4. Or do they? On Monday the brain begins substantial analysis of my exclusive pyramid generator, the Pgen. This analysis will take about 2 weeks. It is an extensive undertaking. Meantime, I’m flying back to New York on Tuesday at lunchtime. King Kong wants to introduce me to some of his fellow supergorillas. I’ll return to Toronto on Thursday eve. The Pgen, and my newsletter, are a big block V8 engine. By the time the Brain has finished their work, it will be an Indy 500 race car engine.
5. The end-goal is macro-oriented. If you are searching for day-flips, or want to call the next 10 dollar move in gold, you’re on the wrong playing field. I’m not interested in that. No business owner cares what price gold is flip-flopping to over the next couple of days. They want the big picture.
6. All investors should want that same thing.
7. Having said that, and this is critical, those who pretend to be long term traders but don’t follow the shorter term action and statistics of the market…I would submit they have a very high chance of making some good market calls.
8. And a very low chance of making YOU any money consistently. You get to your destination one step at a time. And you don’t drive there blindfolded or you will crash.
9. What joe blow amateur trader does next is he says, “I know, if I use stoplosses when there’s danger, I’ll be AOK.” What happens is they stoploss themselves off the main road so many times that they have no money left. They arrive at their planned gold price destination in terms of time, not money. Bottom line: They fail.
10. The gold market is about to turn into a nuclear-powered whipsaw. It will do horrible things to people’s minds and wallets. I’m working at light speed to make sure YOU don’t end up a casualty.
11. The brain and I are both of the view that January is starting to shape up as a time period of critical importance.
12. Our resident gold dealer, Sammy the GoldBull, predicted gold would bottom on Wednesday in a standoff with the bears. Gold did indeed bottom, and it did it $1 off the exact point where the brain thought it would, into the 1118 price zone. I had mentioned the seasonal tendency of gold to sell off at the end of the first week in December. That selloff tends to only last for about 2 weeks and is usually followed by a huge rise in price.
13. So it looks like some sort of support is in place here in the 1120 area. What happens in January has a lot of very smart people very very interested. Are we on the verge of some sort of much bigger rally in the dollar that goes against the normal seasonals? A rally that could pound on gold?
14. Because gold is now trading more as a currency than a commodity, a strong argument could be made that the seasonals are out the window for both the bulls and the bears.
15. "We're going to have a currency crisis, probably this fall or the fall of 2010," – Jim Rogers. May 2009.
16. Well, 2009 didn’t play out. Let’s see what happens in 2010.
17. Many of my subs have built substantial US dollar positions and some gold short positions into this unprecedented gold upside price performance. While maintaining a sizable gold core position, a position you are now adding to on this weakness from 1225.
18. Yesterday was cash register day for me. Natural gas longs, US dollar, gold and silver paper shorts against my physical, oil shorts…all booked profits yesterday, ringing the cash register.
19. I don’t know what is coming, but I know I’m prepared and I know I’m making a 10,000% effort to make sure you are are equally prepared.
20. If you bought USD longs into the weakness, don’t cancel your profit-booking points because you “think” the dollar will have a big rally here.
21. The brain doesn’t even enough data to be able to lay down an ideal buy increment for your gdxj pgen, but as a wild guess, he’s looking at buying every 50 cents down. That’s not in paper, let alone in stone. It’s a WILD GUESS.
22. Let’s say you put one dollar in the gdxj recently as a plop. My suggestion that you consider making that 80 cents and apply the other 20 cents to a pgen. For myself, everything I do is pgen.
23. When gold burst out of the head and shoulders, most in the gold community stood there. Our own Neutral Nellie sold into the gold strength right into 1200. I suggested that the professional, acting in a buy weakness sell strength pyramid, would make less than the player, but they would still do very well, as always.
24. Now as we have professional traders like the brain and Jim Rogers wondering about the possibility of a MAJOR US dollar rally, suddenly YOU, acting as a professional in the market, I believe you probably don’t feel so “light”. Think about today’s feelings and look at your accounts.
25. I’m personally VERY comfortable with how I’m sitting with a MODEST amt of USD longs, balanced against a large metals long position. Remember, the brain is looking to BUY the gdxj into any and all weakness here.
26. Are You?
27. Today is the cot report. I suspect the banksters were heavily on the gold buy thru the lows into Tuesday, the last day of reporting for this important weekly report.
28. Were YOU on the buy too?
Cheers,
st
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
Graceland Updates 4am-7am
Email: s2p3t4@sympatico.ca
Dec 12, 2009
1. Welcome to new subscribers. Reminder that if you have interest in a managed money situation, let me know. I’m flying back to New York on Tuesday next week for 3 days in this regard. Then to Chicago to meet with accountants that specialize in managed money situations, and have for 20 years. All involved have decades of experience specifically with managed money situations. I spent 2 hours on the phone yesterday with the securities lawyer who himself has been doing this for 25 years as his main practise. He has done personal legal work for Jim Sinclair. We’re aren’t playing tiddly winks here, if you know what I mean. I’m back on the phone with the lawyer on Monday.
2. Important: I also paid him to look at central gold trust. He completed that work on Friday. The gold trust. GTU-nyse. HERE is his non-held conclusion: They have a very very high likelihood of holding all the physical gold they say have in an allocated manner. That’s the good news, the most important item. He’s looked at other etfs and told me there’s a lot he doesn’t like with them. One concern he has, which isn’t necessarily a major factor, which is good news, is with all-in costs (factoring in dilution from new issues, legal and brokerage costs to the trust, etc), that are probably 3-4% a year. For a pgen, I don’t see that as an issue. If you believe gold is going substantially higher over the next few years, I don’t think 3-4% is outrageous for an nyse and tsx traded entity with allocated gold held in Canada. He also has a concern that if there were some bizarre event, and the fund had to be closed, there’s a clause that states investors could get back 90% of the NAV, not 100%, when they redeem. I pointed out that because it is exchange-traded, it can be sold any time at the market price, so that 90% redemption issue is irrelevant in most situations, and he agreed.
3. The lawyer also has a lot of experience storing millions in gold in Swiss vaults for people. I’m comfortable with how he operates, how he has operated for 25 years. He notes there are some good Swiss vault situations, some not so good. If you have interest in LEGALLY storing some physical gold in Switzerland, let me know. It will cost you $500 for the information. I take $100 as my cut, then you get 2 hours of solid work from the lawyer at $200 an hour, which is VERY reasonable. Then you can decide if you want to proceed. There are no further costs to you from us. At that point you are dealing with the vault directly. And we get no kickbacks from the Swiss side, not even a favour. This is 100% clean. If you take the consultation, and decide not to proceed, your total loss is $500. If you do proceed, you have professional information to assist your actions. I know, $100 my end, I work too cheaply. King Kong told me that.
4. But consider this: Kong also told me that Bill Gates got his IBM deal because he charged $25, while his two competitors charged about 10 times the price. I operate on the Coca Cola model. Great product. Low Price. Some would say the Woodruff family are fairly successful.
5. I remember talking to a moron in 1986 who was leverage-shorting US t-bonds. I told him (and the other 10 idiots standing around the quote machine also shorting bonds) that he’d blow up and bonds were going to 100. He had the bulk of his savings in this play. His previous master-play was buying an existing restaurant and TRIPLING the prices on the FIRST DAY of operation. That went bankrupt in 2 months. Then bonds, of course, went to 100 and he blew up like a firecracker.
6. The Woodruffs and the Waltons and the Gates understand fear and greed at a supreme level. I follow them. I don’t follow the price-chasing fundsters or the price-triplers.
7. Yes, what about the fundsters? “What’s the maximum price I can buy gold for? Can I leverage that 100 to 1?” –Fundsters, gold $1225.
8. I told the Brain yesterday, “it’s time to move, it’s rock and roll time.” It’s great to organize and play librarian, but the gold mkt is in flux right now. Investors want answers, not organizers to file their losses neatly.
9. YOU want answers.
10. The answer is the bears managed to create what I term “unease” amongst the bull camp yesterday. We all feel it. I went over this with Babe Ruth last night. He’s in California, and I’ll be flying out there in January, for those of you out there who might be in the area…Babe Ruth has gold bear friends. We all get “ha ha ha” emails when gold goes down, emails from the gold bear mini-minds. The bears, the gold-haters, by definition, are cowards, so they like to hit when we’re in a weak position.
11. But that unease is real. I mentioned the importance of identifying greed and fear. At 905 there was overwhelming fear. Dennis Gartman lead the terror parade, the “gold is down one cent an ounce, I better sell!” parade. After 905, the move from 980 to 940 caused another wave of terror. Yet the move from 980 to 1225 brought no greed. At the end there was a bit of “I’m missing out!”, but not heavy greed.
12. Greed can come after a $30 gold upmove, but it could take a $1000 upmove. There are no fixed parameters. Greed only comes on price strength, but the level of that strength can be very different at different times. Here’s a key point:
13. When price rises from a fear zone, it does not necessarily go to the greed zone. It could go back to the fear zone repeatedly, just as a technical indicator that goes to oversold could rise only a bit and then collapse again.
14. Now you are starting to understand how the banksters paint the charts. They are MASTERS at doing this. You are looking at squiggly wiggly lines. Those lines are representations of the current levels of greed and fear in the market. If you try and read charts without a FOUNDATIONAL VIEW of greed and fear, then there is a HIGH chance you will fail in your chart analysis.
15. I’ve repeated this before: If you are a technician, it is CRITICAL that you get out to brokerage firms or whatever it takes to get a VIEW of the emotional state of investors. BEYOND YOUR CHARTS.
16. The banksters want the carry trade. That is the game. The fundsters have two choices: Book profit now on their micro carry trade gains, or HOPE there is no big USD rally and risking losing it all.
17. Something big is coming in the market. If I was a fundster holding a huge leveraged USD short position, I would also be terrified right now. So while the gold community has been enveloped in a cloud of UNEASE, I assure you, the fundster community, who are leveraged long gold AND leveraged short USD in monster size, are on the verge of INSOMNIA mode.
18. The banksters are preparing a TEXAS CHAINSAW MASSACRE of the fundsters USD carry trade positions. And they will take virtually every piece of it as the fundsters unload. That is my firm view.
19. I would guess that should we kick off the New Year with the chainsawing of the fundsters, the PUBLIC will pour even more money into bonds. If I had to bet money on bonds, I would bet the next 6 months sees the end of the aprox 30 year bond bull market. It could play out as event like the destruction of the World Trade Centre or the sinking of the Titanic. An “impossibility” become REAL.
20. When the bond ship goes down, the public will be ALL-IN. Gold newbies think higher rates are negative for gold. I’m not talking about slightly higher rates. I’m talking about the end of a 30 year bull market. Do you know how SERIOUS an event that is? I believe an actual “out of control” feeling will begin to envelop the funds and institutional money community as the banksters pump the media with “is this the end of America?” stories.
21. As the US bond mkt turns to a BEAR.
22. Tudor knows what is coming. So does Paulson. So does Soros. The treasury will respond to the bond bear by attacking the US dollar. I think Jim Rogers’ idea of an actual US dollar CRISIS has a VERY high probability of playing out THIS FALL, meaning 2010.
23. Seasonally, gold tends to be weak for another few days at this time of the year. While the seasonals are out the window due to gold trading as gold is trading as a currency, when you have $110 of price weakness coupled with a possible coming US dollar crisis, the end of the bond bull market, can you really afford to be tossing your gold in the garbage can, simply because Captain Squiggly Wiggly says gold might fall some more?
24. I’m a gold superbull. Not a bull. A superbull. But I was still a buyer of the US dollar into the lows. The Brain never sent me a single “tell the subs to watch out, gold might fall!” email. They send me “I just bot here” or “I just shorted here” emails or phone calls. I’m interested in the Brain’s ACTIONS. Not how far they can puff out their chest. Friday can be summed up as follows: The brain and I argued about whether organization or immediate analysis of the US dollar and gold is most critical, but we both booked profit US dollar longs and gold shorts this week. There is no “look at me, I’m so great” garbage. Where was the cash register ringing from the gold bears and USD bulls on Friday? All I saw was a chest-puffing contest.
25. We’re GOLD SUPERBULLS and we spent this week ringing THEIR cash register, the gold bears’ own cash register, while they did ZERO. Do you know how RIDICULOUS that is? The gold bears are PATHETIC. Hands up anyone who got a single “book some great profits now!” email from a single one of the USD dollar bugs this week. No. It was, “I’m so great, I’m so correct, look at me!” Sorry, Mr. Dollar Bug, I’m not going to look at you.
26. What I AM going to do, is go back to New York and organize a dollar bug Stomping Contest. Picture a little beetle with USD bull painted on his back crawling around. Then me stomping on his head for 10 minutes in a rage. That’s the “look” coming to Mr. Dollar Bug from me. Is HE prepared? I would suggest the answer is: No.
27. Prediction: When the USD currency crisis happens, the fundsters will be LEVERAGED LONG USD.
28. For those of you who think the Brain is some sort of daytrader, here’s a major reality alarm clock ring: The brain is LONG a core position of gold futures from HUNDREDS of dollars below the LOWEST point where most of you bought your gold. When a professional uses leverage and carries a position like that, do you know what the percentage return is? Start adding zeros to your number…
29. No. don’t stop there. Keep going.
30. So, we finish the week with UNEASE. That is the THEME. Don’t hide from it or pretend it doesn’t exist. Whether that transitions into outright fear or not, time will tell. My view is we maybe have another weak price week for gold, but regardless we end the year gold-strong. And then a REAL USD rally occurs, probably sometime in January. Would I personally bet money on my analysis? No. Not one cent. A USD crash is just as possible as a big rally. I bet money on my Pgen buy and sell points, not my analysis. For one reason: it works. But if my analysis is also the Brain’s analysis, would I bet money on it? Yes. It is important to understand that the Brain is comfortable in ALL market conditions. They carry positions in the market every day, but they don’t buy or sell every day. They may act in the market on a “deal” that is 30 minutes in time or a deal that is 3 years or 10 years. That is the level they are at, and that is why none of you, nor I, even approaches that level of excellence.
31. A repeated word of warning: Some of you that used a RANGE pyramid on the USD got quite uncomfortable right into the lows.
32. NEVER TURN A RANGE PYRAMID INTO A FOUNDATIONAL PYRAMID. YOU MAY THINK THE US DOLLAR HAS BOTTOMED HERE. THE BRAIN USES STOPLOSSES. THE BRAIN CAN CHANGE THEIR MIND IN MARKET ACTION 5 TIMES A DAY OR ONCE EVERY 50 YEARS. YOU ARE NOT THE BRAIN. NOT AT ALL. THE US DOLLAR MAY RALLY FROM HERE, BUT IT COULD ALSO CRASH DESPITE THE OVERSOLD CONDITION. DON’T USE RECENT PRICE STRENGTH TO PUFF OUT YOUR CHEST WITH “I GOT IT FIGURED OUT” NONSENSE. THIS IS A PRIMARY US DOLLAR BEAR MARKET. WHEN YOU SET YOUR FINAL BUY POINT, STICK TO IT. NEVER THROW GOOD MONEY AFTER BAD. NEVER.
33. The GLOATING by the dollar bugs now is simply doublespeak for “I’ve blown it totally, but now I HOPE all I MISSED will come back to me NOW.”. That’s the X-ray vision INSIDE of their puffed chest. Picture a USD Vampire with a gold stake thru their heart. Dead.
34. Picture King Kong holding the Brain in one hand and a giant gold stake in the other, while standing on a Gold Empire State Building Pgen, a Pgen manned by a team of real engineers, with thousands of gold soldiers (you) charging forwards. If I was a dollar bug vampire, I’d already be running for my life.
THAT…is…EXACTLY…how THIS USD rally will END.
Gold SuperBulls Readying For Battle
US Dollar Bugs Prepare For Battle
General Patton Out
Cheers,
st
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Written between 4am-7am. 5-6 issues per week. Emailed at aprox 9am daily.
Graceland Updates.
Email: s2p3t4@sympatico.ca
Dec 14, 2009
1. The Broadening Top Formation versus the Broadening Top ACTION. The Dow BLASTED to another high overnight. Now it looks like an upside breakout. Go thru the video I posted on the site (I did it last night before I looked at the mkts) on the broadening top action.
2. The brain identified about half a dozen different broadening ACTIONS in the Dow from the beginning of this supermove in the Dow from Dow 6500. Just like “head and shouldering”, this “broadening action” may all be connected, part of something bigger.
3. In 9 months the Dow has soared 62%. A broadening top typifies illogical action in the market, a market OUT OF CONTROL. That’s the definition of a broadening top. I don’t see any illogical action in the Dow. I see the public buying bonds, the gold community’s Dow shorting campaign a 100% failure, and just a general calmness.
4. 1929 ended with a broadening top. That was a market out of control. I’ve actually lost count of the number of top calls on the Dow I’ve seen from people who missed the ENTIRE 62% UP move.
5. I’m still holding core long positions I bought INTO Dow 6500. Hello? Knock, knock, Anyone home?...
6. I AM shorting the Dow into this strength. But bear market rallies are massive, fast, and powerful. Never mind a market subject to HYPERINFLATION. So you want to be VERY careful about the amt of capital you apply to such an exercise ALWAYS erring on the side of risk. The market can, and has, moved VASTLY higher than you can IMAGINE. Remember your FEELINGS at Dow 6500. Buy THOSE feelings in SIZE. I am 100% comfortable with my actions. Then, and now.
7. Do NOT exceed 30% of your major market risk capital on the short side. If you look at the Dow as a building 6 stories high, it was down to the 6th floor at Dow 6500. Think in terms of one thousand point Dow intervals. Not some kindergarten chartist’s “breakdown point” in fractions of a Dow point. First be sure you have the MENTAL game covered. Then place MONEY.
8. There ARE some major concerns with this market. The currency markets tend to begin intermediate moves when the Dow does. Looking at the Australian dollar, what is arguably the main uptrend line is broken. In a major currency, trends tend to be longer and stronger than in stock markets. The Euro has also broken an uptrend line.
9. You know how my brain works: Major sell signals to the chartists I use as major BUY signals to begin a pgen. Those of you looking at the Euro and thinking “maybe it is going down” should have ALREADY been sellers into this strength, ie buyers of USD.
10. While the pinhead patrol now tries to buy the USD if it rallies, based on various “buy signals”, I’m booking profit on USD longs with my largest positions bought into the EXACT LOWS.
11. In Saturday’s update I termed the theme of the week as “Gold Market UNEASE”. I feel like punching some metal. I took a “meander” thru the latest postings in gold writer land this morning. Here’s a sampling of OUR fellow gold bull soldiers. YOU decide if they are soldiers. Or yellowbellies.
12. “Silver could PLUNGE”! “Gold could CRASH”! “I’m fully hedged”! One guy wrote that he’s tracking the oil market action for “educational reasons”. He’s a very good chartist.
13. I’m not a chartist, although I follow charts every day. I’m a PRICE PREDATOR. With REAL MONEY. Today. Not 10 years from now. Not ‘if this, if that happens” Right here, right now, I’m on the oil BUY. And people in the above WORM mindset are my Monday morning 4am BREAKFAST. “The Early Bird Gets The Worm” could not be a truer statement that THIS fine Monday morning in the OIL market. Oil is $69. You KNOW what I’m having to drink with my breakfast of GOLD WORMS. A BIG TALL GLASS OF CRUDE OIL!
14. If you took away the Brain’s computer he uses to trade gold he would be in a RAGE. When I see oil down THIRTEEN DOLLARS and then hear ANYTHING but the word BUY I also get in a rage.
15. The one exception would be “Stewart I covered some counter trend oil shorts at a PROFIT this morning”. THAT I can accept. I did the same thing myself on Friday.
16. The bottom line: gold and gold-related market unease that arrived on Friday, in a 72 hour period has moved to: FEAR.
17. The only gold crash I am forecasting is the crash of the gold WRITERS and their flock of gold WORMS.
18. I’ll give you 99.99% odds they used leverage AGAIN (hello, if you are a market LOSER why would you leverage THAT?) and blew up AGAIN. It’s like a factory owner leveraging a production line that isn’t selling. Great strategy if your goal is to go bankrupt.
19. One of my wife’s best lifelong friends is a director at a major Caribbean bank with 5000 employees. He is highly connected and a director of several major companies. Today the brain commences their analysis of the Pgen. Tomorrow I fly back to New York. Besides the brain, one of you is a well-known gold community person on gold radio. You are flying in as well. Should be VERY interesting. Next week I meet with two of you (one who is a major partner in a highly successful private equity firm with 100 companies in the portfolio doing $100 million in revenues) about forming a gold DEALER, a kitco type operation. All of this WHILE building more newsletters, and doing all I tell you to do in the major markets myself. I’m on the oil buy. Are You? I’m on the gold buy. Are You? I’m not in overworked mode. I’m in just warming up mode. I’m getting more organized, faster, better, clearer. Here is my message to the gold bears today:
20. GET OUT OF MY WAY.
21. I BEAT ON THE BRAIN ON FRIDAY. GO GO GO! WAS MY MESSAGE. THEY WERE ILL AND I SAID, `WHO CARES, GO GO GO GO!` WE CAN`T HAVE ANYONE AROUND WHO WILL CRACK UNDER PRESSURE. Yeah, they passed the test. Despite having a doctorate degree they talk like a STREET FIGHTER and are IN MY FACE when they disagree with something I’m saying or doing, which is what I want, which is what YOU want). Wet noodles are for eating and nothing else. Obviously I`m not stupid enough to actually force a sick person to make a critical decision at that point, but it`s critical that nobody on the team, including all of you when you act in the market, do so from a failed or weak mental and emotional mindset. I KNOW the mindset of the factory owner in their BUSINESS and THIS is it. It is GENERAL PATTON. It is the SAME mindset I bring to the MARKET. You MUST trade in a size that allows you do [to] maintain not simply a positive and [but an] ALL-POWERFULL mental state. Think RISK. Not REWARD. Reward will look after itself, by definition, if you do.
Welcome To The Party.
22. Some of you still don`t get it. It IS a party. If YOU can step into the oil market right now and BUY while a much larger player is in terror mode, you are the WINNER. All you have is: YOU. There are 69 oil soldiers standing at attention supporting you in oil price BATTLE. Do NOT turn around and starting shooting your own soldiers. That is INSANE.
23. For the few of you who are USD bulls, I have no issue with you. IF you were a USD buyer INTO the recent lows with your LARGEST positions. If you are telling me stories about where the dollar is going on the upside while FAILING to buy into the point of maximum weakness with your largest buy fills, all your analysis is: GARBAGE.
24. I TOLD you how the gold correction would play out. It would begin with the gold idiot patrol sitting in the gold restaurant ordering up a selection of gold and gold-related items at their correction-fantasy prices. Instead of their fantasy gold dinner arriving, what would happen is a BANKSTER would show up with the restaurant garbage can and dump it on their head while they LIQUIDATED in TERROR. THAT is starting to happen NOW. The idiots aren`t buying anything. They are LIQUIDATING. WHY is the price of gold falling? Answer: Because the LOSERS are LIQUIDATING at LOSSES. And PREDATORS like the BRAIN who said not a WORD but SHORTED gold into the HOURS of the high price after watching all the top callers bustout from 905 to 1225, are now hatching their next ATTACK on the drastically WEAKENED price chasers. What a horror show this is for the gold bustouts.
25. The reason Steamin`Lehman can`t help out writing Graceland Juniors is because he`s building a FACTORY. I`ve already got the technical side covered. We`re going to cover ALL component stocks DAILY in the GDXJ and feature an email hotline with any important technical developments as a premium service. All GU subs (all of you), as promised get a free 6 month subscription so long as your current sub is active. I want to add in Mcewan’s index as well. While I refused to allow the Brain to be involved directly as I do not want their time wasted on peanut plays (and we’re already big enough to substantially influence the gdx [j] component stocks which means the UPSIDE PROFITS are limited by LIQUIDITY), I may be able to get some coverage of the GDXJ itself from the Brain. THAT would be a MONSTER SCORE. For now, the message from the Brain is:
Buy the GDXJ with a substantial buy program.
26. Now, let’s get out there. We’re the Gold Lions. Don’t engage in discussion with the gold price bears. EAT THEM.
27. Let me make one more point. My own mother and father don’t even know what I do for a living. They think I write a health newsletter. I talk to my father on the phone daily. When one major market like stocks turns to bear from bull, as it did in 2000, when you say, “I just booked a pile of money and bought gold”, they won’t listen or care. When you appear again in 2011 and say, “I just sold a ton of gold for a monster profit, that’s 2 monster wins in a row”, they WILL listen AND act. All else in between is a waste of time. Don’t educate friends and family about gold. Instead, book monster profits, and at the end of it all, and not before…
SHOW THEM THE MONEY.
Cheers
st